2009 NFL Ranking Formula (Week 6)

I finally got back-to-back weeks with my power ranking formula. With the Saints beating the Giants we are with one less undefeated team, which is making things more and more interesting. This also leaves us with that question that always seems to be asked: who will the last unbeaten team be? The Vikings and Broncos both have two very difficult games coming up. This week the Vikings play at Pittsburgh then next week are at Green Bay followed bye week, while the Broncos have a bye this week but the next two weeks are at Baltimore and then against the Steelers. The Colts and Saints should both win this week, playing away games against the Rams and Dolphins respectively. Then the Colts get the 49ers at home and Texans at home, while the Saints get the Falcons at home and Panthers at home. That two game stretch look more difficult for the Saints but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams start 9-0 or 10-0. They both have just one or two more games that look dangerous and other than that it’s relatively easy sailing.

I would still like to add a few more sources to come up with the average rankings but I’m just not sure which ones I would use. If there are any suggestions let me know. Also, The formula I made for this will become more and more accurate as the season goes on, because as of right now the win percentages are being greatly influential over the final outcome due to the fact that each game makes up a greater portion of teams win percentage. The more games that are played, the more it will water down that impact and the rankings as a whole will become more accurate. Continue reading

2009 NFL Power Rankings (Week 3)

I didn’t do my power rankings last week so note that the “LW” column isn’t actually the standings for “Last Week” it’s actually the rankings from my Week 1 Power Rankings. I am currently using 13 different power rankings from reputable sources to determine the average ranking for each team. I would like to add a few more but I’m not sure which ones I would use. The formula I made for this will become more and more accurate as the season goes on, because as of right now the win percentages are being greatly influential over the final outcome due to the fact that each game makes up a greater portion of teams win percentage. The more games that are played, the more it will water down that impact and the rankings as a whole will become more accurate.

I’m going to start adding a few points that I feel are noteworthy after the rankings so be sure to check those out. Here are the rankings: Continue reading

2009 NFL Power Rankings (Week 1)

Well here are my power rankings, using the same formula that I developed last year. There are some things that are a little off because all the teams have played only one game but on the whole it’s okay. Once the teams get some realistic win percentages and the strength of schedule numbers have played out a little bit more this will really thrive. The glaring problem right now is that not a single team that lost is ahead of a single team that won. This clearly isn’t accurate but as the season progresses it will work itself out. At the very least you can look at the “Avg Rank” column to see the average ranking from a large number of reputable sources. Either way, here it is: Continue reading

2008 NFL Power Rankings (Week 6)

Okay, I realized it’s a little last minute, but I am getting this done before the first games kick off this week so it still counts. Plus I did say that I would put these up. But since these are late anyhow, I decided to have a little bit of fun with them, just to mix it up a bit. So instead of going through and deciding who should be ranked where, I simply made a formula to determine the rankings for me. This formula is by no means perfect, but I did find that it has the teams ranked at least close to where I would have ranked them on my own. The formula isn’t too terribly complex, but it’s complex enough that I don’t really feel like explaining it, so as an alternative I will just tell you that the three main components are win percentage, point differential (on a per game average), and a compilation of multiple professional power ranking. In the end, my formula gave me a “score” for each team and then I ranked them based on those points. Like I said, this formula isn’t perfect, the point scale won’t make a whole lot of since to anybody, so don’t put too much thought into it. I don’t think that the Titans are three times better than the Giants, these are just the numbers that the formula spit out. There are some things that I definitely want to change for future use of this formula, but for now I give you this:

Rank LW Team W L Win % PD/G Avg Rnk Score
1 2 Tennessee 5 0 1.00 11.80 1.19 2720.00
2 1 NY Giants 4 1 0.80 11.40 2.63 972.19
3 7 Pittsburgh 4 1 0.80 4.80 2.75 736.00
4 3 Buffalo 4 1 0.80 4.40 5.38 370.60
5 12 Washington 4 2 0.67 1.50 6.56 223.49
6 8 Tampa Bay 4 2 0.67 7.33 8.69 213.59
7 4 Dallas 4 2 0.67 5.67 8.31 209.86
8 20 Arizona 4 2 0.67 5.50 9.63 180.09
9 17 Indianapolis 3 2 0.60 3.40 8.13 176.49
10 11 Carolina 4 2 0.67 3.33 10.50 151.32
11 14 Denver 4 2 0.67 2.00 11.69 128.34
12 6 San Diego 3 3 0.50 6.50 11.31 119.34
13 5 Philadelphia 3 3 0.50 7.33 13.00 107.05
14 25 Atlanta 4 2 0.67 2.00 14.38 104.35
15 19 NY Jets 3 2 0.60 2.20 15.31 88.95
16 9 New Orleans 3 3 0.50 6.50 16.69 80.90
17 16 Jacksonville 3 3 0.50 -0.67 13.31 74.49
18 15 Chicago 3 3 0.50 6.50 18.38 73.47
19 10 Green Bay 3 3 0.50 2.50 18.69 61.54
20 18 New England 3 2 0.60 -4.00 16.13 61.40
21 21 Minnesota 3 3 0.50 -1.00 19.94 48.90
22 24 Miami 2 3 0.40 0.80 23.25 36.65
23 13 Baltimore 2 3 0.40 -1.80 22.13 33.81
24 26 Cleveland 2 3 0.40 -2.20 22.31 32.81
25 23 San Francisco 2 4 0.33 -4.33 27.00 19.96
26 27 Houston 1 4 0.20 -9.20 25.63 8.82
27 22 Seattle 1 4 0.20 -10.20 25.81 7.98
28 28 Oakland 1 4 0.20 -10.80 28.88 6.72
29 29 Kansas City 1 4 0.20 -13.20 29.81 4.90
30 30 Cincinnati 0 6 0.00 -9.33 30.38 0.37
31 31 Detroit 0 5 0.00 -16.60 31.63 0.12
32 32 St. Louis 1 4 0.20 -20.40 28.63 0.07

Legend: W-Wins, L-Losses, PD/G- Point Differential per Game, Score-The number my formula gave me for each team.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 4)

I would like to point out one thing that Megan Manfull wrote recently: “Since the Texans joined the league in 2002, 31 teams have started a season 0-3. Only one of those teams — the 2004 Buffalo Bills — went on to record a winning record by finishing 9-7. Only two others finished .500.”

RK LW Team W L Comment
1 1 Giants 3 0 Ha. I’m to only one who’s consistently had them on top. Still the Champs.
2 9 Titans 4 0 3 home games and opponents are 3-12, but they’re winning by an average of 14 points, which leads the league.
3 11 Bills 4 0 The Bills have been big in the 4th quarter, and are winning by 11.5 per game, which is third in the league behind the Titans and Giants.
4 2 Cowboys 3 1 Let’s be honest. They’re still one of the best in the league. One stumble won’t hurt, unless T.O. stays P.O.ed.
5 5 Eagles 2 2 Only a .500 record but still 4th in the league in terms of point differential per game.
6 14 Chargers 2 2 They look like they’re bouncing back from a bad start.
7 3 Steelers 3 1 Though they’re 3-1, the Steelers are only +19 in point differential, which is only 4.75 per game.
8 16 Buccaneers 3 1 The Buccs are only a little better at +6.75 per game, but their 3-0 with Griese under center.
9 13 Saints 2 2 Deuce is back, which should help this offense immensely.
10 6 Packers 2 2 We’ll see what happens if Aaron Rodgers can’t play this week.
11 8 Panthers 3 1 Only one loss, but only +2.5 for their point differential average per game.
12 23 Redskins 3 1 Another one loss team with a low point differential (+5) giving them only a 1.25 average margin of victory.
13 17 Ravens 2 1 Baltimore is better than I thought but that close loss the close loss to Pittsburgh hurts.
14 12 Broncos 3 1 The defense needs to start playing better, because a loss to KC should not be acceptable.
15 15 Bears 2 2 The looked good against Philly. Can they keep it up?
16 22 Jaguars 2 2 They bounced back from their 0-2 start, but in their two wins they’ve had to come from behind.
17 4 Colts 1 2 Get it together. Now. Getting Houston this week should help.
18 7 Patriots 2 1 A -9 point differential and a loss to Miami got the Pats stuck here.
19 18 Jets 2 2 The offense looks good but the defense… well, doesn’t. 115 points scored, 116 points allowed.
20 10 Cardinals 2 2 The o-line needs to step it up in pass protection. They’ll hope to hand the Bills their first loss when they come to town this week.
21 19 Vikings 1 3 Disappointing would be an understatement. They face the Saints on MNF this week, and they need to win.
22 21 Seahawks 1 2 They got some receivers back with their BYE week, but the defense needs to help them out.
23 25 49ers 2 2 The Pats are coming off a BYE and are angry after a loss to Miami. The o-line needs to protect O’Sullivan better to give them a chance.
24 31 Dolphins 1 2 They upset the Pats in week 3. Can they do the same to the Chargers this week?
25 24 Falcons 2 2 They’re better than most anybody expected but I only see them winning one more game. That’s right. One more.
26 20 Browns 1 3 They have a BYE week, which they’ll need to work miracles to continue to dig out of the hole from their 0-3 start.
27 26 Texans 0 3 Houston has the third worst points differential per game average in the league at -14.33, the Colts will look to make that number even worse.
28 27 Raiders 1 3 This team has a lot of spirit. Can that carry them through the mess that is Al Davis?
29 30 Chiefs 1 3 Did you really just beat the Broncos? Wow. Well, at least you won’t have a winless season.
30 29 Bengals 0 4 The Bengals should be happy that the Lions and Rams exist, because this team would be worth of a bottom ranking if it weren’t for those two.
31 28 Lions 0 3 The two teams I mentioned that Houston has a better average point differential than? The Lions are one of them at -18 points per game. At least they got rid of Millen.
32 32 Rams 0 4 The other team worse than the Texans in point differential per game? These Rams are losing by an AVERAGE of 26 points per game. They’re overall point differential is -104. How do you do that in just 4 games? They are getting Donnie Avery involved though.

My “Power Rankings”

Okay, so I know it’s a bit early for this, but as you very well may have caught on, the NFL is year round for me. Plus it makes me feel better that ESPN released theirs about a month ago. Also, many people seemed to think that the simulations I did reflected how I thought things would turn out. So here are my offseason power rankings:

1. New York Giants – They’re the champs until they lose.

2. Indianapolis Colts – Added depth along the d-line and o-line, and brought back Rhodes.

3. San Diego Chargers – A healthy and hungry LT, this will be a great team.

4. new england patriots – Resigned Moss, but defense will struggle.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jack Del Rio is a great coach and if Garrard plays like last year, they will be good.

6. Dallas Cowboys – Lack of depth at wide receiver could hurt them, as well as potential character issues.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall will be a great tandem.

8. Cleveland Browns – The offense has some nice weapons, but the fate of this team depends on the defense.

9. Washington Redskins – A young team with a lot of potential, we’ll see what happens.

10. Minnesota Vikings – If AP plays like he did last year this team is my pick for the NFC North.

11. New Orleans Saints – A strong off season will help them bounce back from a disapponting season.

12. Green Bay Packers – They lost Favre, who was their backbone and leader, can the prevail?

13. Seattle Seahawks – Without a running game can they stay on top of the NFC West?

14. Philadelphia Eagles – Can McNabb stay healthy? Can a better secondary turn this team around?

15. Arizona Cardinals – Will they finally play up to their potential? If they do then they’re in the playoffs.

16. Tennessee Titans – They didn’t make many improvements this offseason, but they didn’t get worse either.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Warrick Dunn’s return help push this team over the top?

18. Houston Texans – A team on the rise, could pass the Titans in the division.

19. Buffalo Bills – Picking up Marcus Stroud will help, but will it be enough to get a wild card spot?

20. Carolina Panthers – If Jake Delhomme is healthy they could easily be a playoff contender.

21. New York Jets – Lots of offseason acquisitions could help this team find themselves in the playoff race.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Strong defense as always, but do they have a quarterback that can help this team win?

23. Oakland Raiders – Had a lot of free agency pick-ups, which may help this team get second in the AFC West.

24. Denver Broncos – I feel like you never know what you’re going to get out of the Broncos from year to year.

25. St. Louis Rams – If Bulger and Jackson can stay healthy, this team could have a good year.

26. Detroit Lions – Can they find a way to win with a high powered air assault with nothing else?

27. Cincinnati Bengals – Too many off the field issues will keep this team from being successful.

28. San Francisco 49ers – It’ll be a while before I see this team having a good season.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – This is a rebuilding year, with a lot of young talent, but that’s about it.

30. Chicago Bears – Until they permanently replace rex grossman this team won’t find a rhythm.

31. Miami Dolphins – The Big Tuna has made some changes but don’t expect an immediate turn around.

32. Atlanta Falcons – New coach, new QB, they’re on the right track, but it’s going to take a few years.

%d bloggers like this: