2011 NFL Mock Draft I (05/15)

Well the 2011 NFL Draft is only about 341 days away, which means it’s time for my first 2011 mock draft. I’m determining the draft order by using vegasinsider.com’s odds on who will win Super Bowl XLV, which I am listing with each team. The only exception to this is Oakland, because they traded their first round pick to the patriots, so in that slot I am listing the Raiders odds of winning the Super Bowl, not the pats. This is just one round, because let’s be real about it, a mock draft of any length with the actual draft this far away is just ridiculous… but it’s fun to do, so here it is:

Pick Team Odds Player Pos School Also Considered
1 St. Louis 150/1 AJ Green WR Georgia Cameron Heyward
2 Buffalo 120/1 Jake Locker QB Washington Julio Jones
3 Kansas City 100/1 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas Julio Jones
4 Detroit 100/1 Cameron Heyward DE Ohio St Robert Quinn
5 New England (Via Oakland) 100/1 Julio Jones WR Alabama Mark Ingram
6 Tampa Bay 100/1 Robert Quinn DE UNC Mark Ingram
7 Cleveland 80/1 Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa Von Miller
8 Seattle 50/1 Marcell Dareus DE Alabama Ingram & Andrew Luck
9 Denver 50/1 Von Miller LB Texas A&M Patrick Peterson
10 Jacksonville 50/1 Mike Pouncey C Florida Michael Floyd
11 Carolina 50/1 Greg Romeus DE Pittsburgh Marvin Austin
12 Arizona 50/1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Patrick Peterson
13 San Francisco 40/1 Patrick Peterson CB LSU DeAndre McDaniel
14 Philadelphia 30/1 Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia Gabe Carimi
15 Chicago 30/1 Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin Prince Amukamara
16 Miami 30/1 Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame Mark Ingram
17 Houston 30/1 Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh Anthony Castonzo
18 Tennessee 28/1 Marvin Austin DT UNC Prince Amukamara
19 Washington 28/1 Mark Ingram RB Alabama Kristopher O’Dowd
20 Cincinnati 25/1 Bruce Carter OLB UNC Rahim Moore
21 Atlanta 22/1 Allen Bailey DE Miami Anthony Castonzo
22 Pittsburgh 20/1 Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College Travis Lewis
23 N.Y. Giants 15/1 Joseph Barksdale OT LSU Prince Amukamara
24 Baltimore 14/1 Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska DeAndre McDaniel
25 N.Y. Jets 12/1 Tavis Lewis OLB Oklahoma DeAndre McDaniel
26 Minnesota 11/1 Christian Ponder QB FSU Matt Reynolds
27 Green Bay 19/2 Aaron Williams CB Texas Kristopher O’Dowd
28 New England 9/1 DeAndre McDaniel S Clemson Matt Reynolds
29 San Diego 17/2 Matt Reynolds OT BYU Jared Crick
30 New Orleans 8/1 Jared Crick DT Nebraska Rahim Moore
31 Dallas 8/1 Rahim Moore S UCLA Curtis Brown & O’Dowd
32 Indianapolis 13/2 Curtis Brown CB Texas Kristopher O’Dowd

Now for some notes about the picks:

  • I don’t know if I truly think that the Rams will take a wide receiver first overall and if they hadn’t just selected Sam Bradford with the first overall pick in the 2010 draft, I’d have given them Jake Locker, who is first overall on my big board. They did take Bradford though, so Locker would make zero sense here, so instead they get AJ Green, who is second on my big board and also fills a position of need.
  • The Bills are more than happy to take Locker at the second pick. I just don’t think that Trent Edwards and his 77.9 career passer rating is going to be good enough for the Bills in the long run.
  • The Chiefs will hopefully realize what a mistake it was to think that Matt Cassel could be a franchise quarterback, and will take Ryan Mallett here. Locker and Mallett would be compared to each other for their entire careers, which would be really interesting to see play out. And if this did happen, I’d look for the Chiefs to start making a push for division titles in the near future.
  • If the Lions took Heyward here to team up with Suh on the d-line, they would be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
  • I fully expect the Patriots to be without Randy Moss next year, and Wes Welker wouldn’t be near as productive without Moss drawing coverage away. They would draft Julio Jones here to reboost the receiving corp.
  • Like the Lions, if the Bucs took Robert Quinn here, he would be playing with Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and that d-line would be scary good.
  • Yes, I realize that with Cleveland and Seattle both taking DEs here that I have had four of the last five picks be DEs but this draft is LOADED with high quality defensive ends. It’s going to be really interesting to see which order they actually end up going next year. There are five that I see as potential top ten picks and eight that could end up being first round worthy.
  • Denver grabs Von Miller here. It’s a bit of a reach, but I see a lot of reaching in the Broncos draft future with the new head coach. After all, he did trade up for tim tebow.
  • The Jaguars take Mike Pouncey because they kind of need a center, and Pouncey plays for florida and Jaguars fans are usually gator fans. Plus the Jags have a nasty habit of making huge reaches for players than only fill secondary needs with top ten picks.
  • The Panthers have their first first-round pick in what feels like an eternity. It’s really only been since 2008 that they’ve had a first round pick but still, it’s rare to see a team go back-to-back years trading away their first round picks. So they use this opportunity to grab one of the many stellar DEs in this draft.
  • The Cardinals no longer have Kurt Warner and I think they give Matt Leinart one year to prove himself worthy of a starting job. I think he’ll fail, and the Cards will need to draft a quarterback here.
  • With the 13th pick the 49ers get the award for best pick of this mock draft. Patrick Peterson is a stud and I currently have him listed as third overall on my big board, so to get him at 13 is just crazy.
  • The Eagles continue their quest for re-establishing their once feared secondary, by taking a corner at 14.
  • Chicago only had one pick in the first three rounds in the 2010 draft, so being able to actually participate on Day 1 should be a nice change in 2011. They bolster their o-line with Gabe Carimi, an offensive tackle, who will probably be high on draft boards by the time next year’s draft actually rolls around.
  • The Dolphins snag Michael Floyd to line up across from Brandon Marshall, giving their passing game a huge boost.
  • Houston follows suit and grabs a receiver of their own in Jonathan Baldwin, giving Matt Schaub one more weapon.
  • The Titans grab Marvin Austin in hopes of finding a replacement for the missed Albert Haynesworth.
  • The Redskins have about a thousand old running backs it seems, so they draft Mark Ingram here, which is a hell of a steal getting him this late in the first round (he’s eighth on my board) and get a little younger at that position.
  • I realize that the Bengals already have two young starting outside linebackers, but I think they need some healthy competition to push them plus this would provide some needed depth. Also, if one of the three could be moved inside to middle linebacker then they would have a very young, and talented group to comprise their starting linebacker corp.
  • I was surprised that the Falcons didn’t address defensive end in Day 1 or Day 2 this year, so I had them do it in the first round next year.
  • The Steelers and Giants both struggle on the o-line last year, which is one of the many reasons neither team even made the playoffs. Drafting Castonzo and Barksdale would help.
  • The Ravens grab a much needed corner, which I thought would be a position they’d draft early on this year and they didn’t.
  • The Jets continue to build on their suffocating defense by making an upgrade at linebacker with Travis Lewis, who would likely replace Bryan Thomas.
  • I have the Vikings grabbing a quarterback in the first round in 2011, because I fully expected them to draft one this year. Favre can’t play forever.
  • Charles Woodson and Al Harris are old as dirt, and they’re only getting older. The Packers definitely need to start getting younger at corner, which is why I have them drafting Aaron Williams.
  • The Patriots still have problems in the secondary so they take a safety in an attempt to fill those holes.
  • I think Matt Reynolds is an upgrade over either of the Chargers current starters at OT.
  • It’ll be interesting to see if Crick plays as well this year without Suh right next to him, but assuming he does, he’ll be an improvement over Remi Ayodele for the Saints.
  • I have a friend who is a huge Cowboys fan and I know he was pretty taken aback by the fact that the Cowboys didn’t draft a safety early on in the 2010 draft, so this time around since (based on how this scenario was created by the odds makers in Vegas) the Cowboys will becoming off a Super Bowl loss to the Colts, and teams usually realize where the holes in their secondary are very quickly when facing Peyton Manning & Co.
  • I was ready to give the Colts Kristopher O’Dowd because Jeff Saturday is aging and the o-line needs improving but I did some quick research on both him and Curtis Brown and it seems to me that Brown is simply a better fit. He’s more versatile and the Colts definitely do need more quality at the cornerback position because as of right now if they need to put four corners on the field or if one of the current top three corners goes down with an injury it’s going to be a bad situation. Plus Brown has a lot of experience on special teams which is something the Colts look for, so Brown is the final pick of the first round for my first 2011 NFL Mock Draft.

Pick Team Odds Player Pos School Also Considered
1 St. Louis 150/1 AJ Green WR Georgia Cameron Heyward
2 Buffalo 120/1 Jake Locker QB Washington Julio Jones
3 Kansas City 100/1 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas Julio Jones
4 Detroit 100/1 Cameron Heyward DE Ohio St Robert Quinn
5 New England (Via Oak) 100/1 Julio Jones WR Alabama Mark Ingram
6 Tampa Bay 100/1 Robert Quinn DE UNC Mark Ingram
7 Cleveland 80/1 Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa Von Miller
8 Seattle 50/1 Marcell Dareus DE Alabama Ingram & Andrew Luck
9 Denver 50/1 Von Miller LB Texas A&M Patrick Peterson
10 Jacksonville 50/1 Mike Pouncey C Florida Michael Floyd
11 Carolina 50/1 Greg Romeus DE Pittsburgh Marvin Austin
12 Arizona 50/1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Patrick Peterson
13 San Francisco 40/1 Patrick Peterson CB LSU DeAndre McDaniel
14 Philadelphia 30/1 Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia Gabe Carimi
15 Chicago 30/1 Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin Prince Amukamara
16 Miami 30/1 Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame Mark Ingram
17 Houston 30/1 Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh Anthony Castonzo
18 Tennessee 28/1 Marvin Austin DT UNC Prince Amukamara
19 Washington 28/1 Mark Ingram RB Alabama Kristopher O’Dowd
20 Cincinnati 25/1 Bruce Carter OLB UNC Rahim Moore
21 Atlanta 22/1 Allen Bailey DE Miami Anthony Castonzo
22 Pittsburgh 20/1 Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College Travis Lewis
23 N.Y. Giants 15/1 Joseph Barksdale OT LSU Prince Amukamara
24 Baltimore 14/1 Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska DeAndre McDaniel
25 N.Y. Jets 12/1 Tavis Lewis OLB Oklahoma DeAndre McDaniel
26 Minnesota 11/1 Christian Ponder QB FSU Matt Reynolds
27 Green Bay 19/2 Aaron Williams CB Texas Kristopher O’Dowd
28 New England 9/1 DeAndre McDaniel S Clemson Matt Reynolds
29 San Diego 17/2 Matt Reynolds OT BYU Jared Crick
30 New Orleans 8/1 Jared Crick DT Nebraska Rahim Moore
31 Dallas 8/1 Rahim Moore S UCLA Curtis Brown & O’Dowd
32 Indianapolis 13/2 Curtis Brown CB Texas Kristopher O’Dowd

2 Responses

  1. First OT will be takin much earlier than 15th and more importantly a center before a OT…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

  2. I agree as a Tampa fan; they will almost certainly take a DE high, in a strong crop, but HB is a possibility.

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