Mr. Wright’s Week 8 Bettor’s Guide

NFL Week 8 Bettor’s Guide
M.D. Wright
10.29.09

 

Great rivalry games coming up this week. A couple of teams could disappear from playoff contention with losses this week. The NFC East lead is at stake also. The Colts look to go 7-0 and the Rams and Lions play in the Stink Bowl. Let’s get to the picks.

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland

Over/Under: 41.5
BAL: -3
DEN: +160
BAL: -180

Denver’s traveling east, about to get exposed. However, I wonder how much the Ravens will blitz. They should, because Orton is anything BUT accurate throwing past 15-20 yards. It is a wonder that teams haven’t blitzed Denver more. Knowshon Moreno gets it done and never loses yardage. The Ravens haven’t been the defensive juggernaut they were in the past. They will give up points, but they will score also. Joe Flacco may throw the prettiest and most accurate deep ball in the NFL. Expect tons of carries by Ray Rice AND Willis McGahee to wear down that smaller Denver Bronco defensive front. Matchup to watch: Champ vs. Clayton. Ravens at home to cover. The OVER lives, also.

Pick:
Denver 21
Baltimore 27

FINAL
—————

Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois

Over/Under: 40
CHI: -13
CLE: +500
CHI: -700

Why are the Bears favored by so much? They are much closer to the team that lost 45-10 last week than the one that beat the Steelers earlier this year. But the Browns are ROTTEN.

Pick:
Cleveland 13
Chicago 17

FINAL
————–

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, New York

Over/Under: 41.5
BUF: +3.5
HOU: -175
BUF: +155

This game is going over EASILY. Buffalo can’t stop any decent offenses and Houston’s is one of the best in the NFL. What an ugly game to watch, though. The Texans will keep them in it, because for some reason Schaub is still making rookie/backup mistakes and getting paid top tier starting money NOT to. Steve Slaton is coming alive. But they can’t close games out because they have pitiful Chris Brown who can’t hold on to the ball or gain a yard when they need to keep the sticks moving or get in the end zone in goal line situations. What a shaky team. But they’ll beat this Bills outfit easily.

Pick:
Houston 34
Buffalo 17

FINAL
————-

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana

Over/Under: 45
IND: -13
SF: +475
IND: -650

I don’t like the Colts getting this many points. The Niners made an effective QB change and they have Crabtree to go with Davis and Gore now. They will score a bit. But they can’t stop the league’s MVP all game — nevermind the fact they travel poorly and this game is in the Colts’ stead.

Pick:
San Francisco 23
Indianapolis 41

FINAL
—————

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey

Over/Under: 40.5
NYJ: -3.5
MIA: +155
NYJ: -175

The Jets need to run the ball effectively early. Shonn Greene in his first opportunity is showing why he was picked (and why the Jets traded up with Cleveland to get him) so highly. However, the Dolphin defense is much better than the Raiders (well, at least for 3 quarters of games — as evidenced by the way it QUIT against the Saints in Week 7). If he can fill the hole left by RB Leon Washington being out for the season with a gruesomely broken leg, the Jets won’t miss a beat. Additionally, they still miss NT Kris Jenkins, but that won’t factor against this team which plays on the perimeter so often with their Wildcat Offense. The Jets put together another streak with the win. Stay away from the Over/Under, it’s gonna hurt your heart, and it’s not worth it this week.

Pick:
Miami 17
NY Jets 23

FINAL
—————

St. Louis Rams vs. Detroit Lions

Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan

Over/Under: 44
DET: -4
STL: +180
DET: -220

Who is even going to be able to see this game? It’s going to be blacked out, and quite frankly, how about the NFL just act like they simulated it on Madden ’10 and report THAT as the outcome? It would be better than watching them play.

Pick:
St. Louis 14
Detroit 27

FINAL
————-

Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Stadium
Dallas, Texas

Over/Under: 46
DAL: -9.5
SEA: +335
DAL: -430

The Cowboys are at a pivotal juncture. Coming off a good win against Atlanta, and with first place in the division at stake, they can make several statements here. 1) Put away a team they are “supposed” to beat with ease, 2) Romo puts together 3 straight strong games and 3) by winning and with a Giants loss, they’d be in first place. If all three happen, then you should watch out for Dallas the rest of this season. They still lead the league in offense.

The Seabags don’t warrant mention. I don’t know why people think they’re ever going to be good. This entire decade they’ve been given too much hype and this team is a joke across the board.

Pick:
Seattle 13
Dallas 34

FINAL
————–

New York Football Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Over/Under: 44
PHI: +1
Pick ’em

The Giants are in a similar situation as Dallas (and Philadelphia, for varying reasons) right now. A win keeps them in first place alone. It also silences those who continue to assert that they’ve been “exposed” (rather, have tons of injuries at critical positions and being taken advantage of in those positions — which NFL teams SHOULD do), pushes Philadelphia further behind (thereby raising many questions about Andy Reid’s preparation/play-calling, McNabb’s long-term future in the city and wondering what they really have after losing to Oakland, which has lost 82-6 to the two New York teams, who in turn have given up 72 points to the Saints — for whatever that is worth). The Giants will be able to run the ball and pass with ease against the Iggles’ rather porous defense, but they will have nightmares covering all the speed the Iggles feature on offense. If Brian Westbrook is unable to play or be near 100%, the Eagles may be forced to pass 45 times and against the Giants’ front 7 that’s not good. Eli got his bad game of the year out of the way.

Pick:
NY Giants 27
Philadelphia 23

FINAL
————-

Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers

Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California

Over/Under: 41.5
SD: -16.5

You know you’re bad when Vegas won’t even set a Money Line and they’re giving you 17 points GOOD HEAVENS.

Pick:
Oakland 10
San Diego 44

FINAL
————–

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee

Over/Under: 45
TEN: -3
JAX: +145
TEN: -165

So let me get this straight. This team just lost 59-0 and they’re GIVING 3 to the Jags ha? This team has quit. Maybe they think because Vince is playing they’ll have a chance to win (Vegas). I dunno. I wouldn’t want to be stuck with this game locally. Both teams stink, really. MJD leads the NFL in rushing TDs and Chris Johnson (somehow) still ranks near the top of the league in rushing yards. This game could go either way, but I hate the Titans for the way they didn’t even show up in Foxborough.

Pick:
Jacksonville 23
Tennessee 9

FINAL
————–

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin

Over/Under: 47.5
GB: -3
MIN: +155
GB: -175

Vikes getting 3 points. Hmmmm… I don’t even think this game will be close. The Packers have NIGHTMARES protecting Rodgers and Peterson is due (and WILL, against this defense) for a huge game. I’m not giving that Favre story any publicity whatsoever. He won’t be the storyline.

Pick:
Minnesota 31
Green Bay 20

FINAL
————–

Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals

University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona

Over/Under: 41
ARI: -10
CAR: +400
ARI: -500

The Panthers? On the road? Late? HA. The Over/Under is ONLY 41? DEAR GOD. The CURDS might get that by THEMSELVES.

Pick:
Carolina 10
Arizona 44

FINAL
—————

NO SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL DUE TO THE WORLD SERIES.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Over/Under: 54
NO: -10
ATL: +350
NO: -450

That 10 points the Fulcons are getting has more to say about how the Saints play on that fast track than how mediocre (to downright bad, especially TACKLING) the Falcons are.

The Saints’ defense is going to begin to get exposed this week. They’ve played over their heads all season and it’s time people see them for what they are outside of Vilma and Sharper (and he’s getting by on guile — because he’s lost two steps since leaving Green Bay 4 years ago) — and that’s FRAUDS. However, Brees IS “that good”. Not an upset special here, but keep an eye out for the Patriots the week after looming.

Pick:
Atlanta 23
New Orleans 37

FINAL
—————

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