Mr. Wright’s Week 7 Bettor’s Guide

NFL Week 7 Bettor’s Guide
M.D. Wright
10.22.09

This will be a Hit ‘n’ Run version of the picks with College Football, NBA, MLB World Series and Midnight Madness NCAA Basketball upon us at the same time. My head’s about to bust.

Let’s get right to the picks.

San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri

Over/Under: 44
KC: +5
SD: -220
KC: +180

Where to begin with this? This could be called an Upset Special, but then again, given how the Chargers play defense, can you really say that? The only thing constantly nagging the Chiefs is their inability to run the ball (Larry Johnson looks like GRANDMAMA in the backfield — not the guy from 2006) and their likewise inability to stop teams defensively. Should be a one-sided shootout, but the Chargers are a bettor’s nightmare. They’ll cover those 5 and tentatively I’d say take the over.

Pick:
San Diego 27
Kansas City 21

FINAL – OT
———————-

Indianapolis Colts vs. St. Louis Rams
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri

Over/Under: 45
STL: +13.5
IND: -800
STL: +600

Colts cover and take the UNDER.

Pick:
Indianapolis 31
St. Louis 10

FINAL
—————

Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio

Over/Under: 41
CLE: +9
GB: -400
CLE: +320

Take the points and the over and RUN.

Pick:
Green Bay 34
Cleveland 17

FINAL
——————-

Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Over/Under: 45
PIT: -5.5
MIN: +190
PIT: -230

Interesting story lines abound here. S Troy Polamalu returns for Pittsburgh. The thing about this is, he won’t make a difference to their defense — as much as Steeler fans and “expert” analysts think. They just aren’t dominant this year on that side of the ball. Roethlisberger is having a passing season for the ages right now and is on pace to break Dan Marino’s 5,084-yard season in 1984. The thing is — they can’t run the ball. That does not bode well when playing a great run stuffing team like Minnesota. He could have a huge day through the air against the Vikes’ D, however.

The Brett Favre story gets interesting here. They are playing in stodgy Heinz Field. Not cold this week, however. Adrian Peterson will run at will with the Steeler defense not being dominant versus the run. The question will be if Favre can find his guys consistently across the middle of the field and deep behind Polamalu. If so, I like the Vikes to win (cover) and given the way these two teams don’t put teams away, it should go OVER.

Pick:
Minnesota 31
Pittsburgh 27

FINAL
————–

New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wembley Stadium
London, England

Over/Under: 45
TB: +15

……………….

Pick:
New England 48
Tampa Bay 10

FINAL
————–

San Francisco 49ers vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas

Over/Under: 44
HOU: -3
SF: +150
HOU: -170

On paper, this looks pretty good. The Texans are finally catching up with their offense on the defensive side of the ball. Will it continue? Will it have to, give the 49ers don’t travel well?

Niners get Crabtree this week, but he probably won’t see much action. They really need a 100% Gore and he’s not 100%. Texans have too many guys to cover and the 49ers only have a couple of guys who are NFL-level defenders in coverage (Pat Willis, Nate Clements). They lost their strong side ‘backer Jeff Ulbrich for the year, which further weakens their defense. They needed him to help slow down Slaton and (attempt) to cover Owen Daniels, who is vastly underrated, downfield in coverage.

Pick:
San Francisco 20
Houston 35

FINAL
————–

New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders
The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California

Over/Under: 35
OAK: +6
NYJ: -270
OAK: +230

The Jets better right their ship ASAP. They do not travel west very well at all. Actually POORLY. Mark Sanchez has looked more like JaMarcus Russell lately — while Russell has been somewhat respectable (relatively) the past two games statistically; against very good defenses at that.

The Jets are going to miss NT Kris Jenkins for sure, so this game will be close.

Pick:
NY Jets 13
Oakland 14

FINAL
————–

Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina

Over/Under: 36.5
CAR: -7
BUF: +250
CAR: -300

If the Panthers can’t win this game, then every bit of the fallout that occurs this offseason will be deserved. This means you, Foxie, Delhomme, Other-Steve, Peppers, etc.
Buffalo is in a quandry, despite their “win” last week and do not travel well AT ALL.

Pick:
Buffalo 10
Carolina 21

FINAL
————–

Chicago Bears vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio

Over/Under: 42.5
CIN: -1

For ATS purposes, the Bears are a nightmare to call. They are a nightmare to watch as well, for that matter. The Bengals bounce back at home.

Pick:
Chicago 17
Cincinnati 23

FINAL
—————

New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins
Land Shark Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida

Over/Under: 47
MIA: +6.5
NO: -290
MIA: +245

Lead pipe lock of the week? THAT OVER. Well, that in the SNF game. The Dolphins will impede the Saints because they’re not on that fast track in the Superdome and actually playing an attacking defense that isn’t scared to blitz Brees.

However, the Saints will cover every one of the lines.

Pick:
New Orleans 33
Miami 20

FINAL
————-

Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys Stadium
Arlington, Texas

Over/Under: 47.5
DAL: -4
ATL: +170
DAL: -200

This could be a lock to go over also, but the Falcons are becoming unpredictable on the road (as opposed to being flat out POOR on the road for the past year and a half). The Cowboys are too big on the offensive line no homo to not be able to run the ball as they’d like.

However, if they cannot get pressure on Matthew Ice, then this game can be close. The Over lives, but stay away from the spread unless you got bread to breathe and risk with.

Pick:
Atlanta 27
Dallas 38

FINAL
————–

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Over/Under: 46
NYG: -7
ARZ: +255
NYG: -310

A couple of subplots here. If Boldin doesn’t play, how does the Cardinals’ play-calling change, if at all? The Cards are traveling east (notoriously bad for them) and playing late at night against a Giants team that does not play well in prime time. Something’s gotta give?

The Curds don’t play the run well. They are very opportunistic against the pass. The Giants can stifle the Curds’ running game, but if their secondary isn’t better organized and the front 4/7 can’t get to Warner, this could be a shootout. Well, just as long as it’s between 50-56 ha.

Pick:
Arizona 23
NY Giants 31

FINAL
—————

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Over/Under: 37.5
WASH: +7
PHI: -320
WASH: +260

What. The. HAYYYYYYYLE was the NFL thinking? Even though the Iggles lost to the Raiders, the Raiders care, the Skins don’t.

Pick:
Philadelphia 24
Washington 6

FINAL
————–

Terrible Week 5 and Week 6 ATS for me. This week should be a rebound.
BUT YOU NEVER KNOW.

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