2009 NFL Ranking Formula (Week 6)

I finally got back-to-back weeks with my power ranking formula. With the Saints beating the Giants we are with one less undefeated team, which is making things more and more interesting. This also leaves us with that question that always seems to be asked: who will the last unbeaten team be? The Vikings and Broncos both have two very difficult games coming up. This week the Vikings play at Pittsburgh then next week are at Green Bay followed bye week, while the Broncos have a bye this week but the next two weeks are at Baltimore and then against the Steelers. The Colts and Saints should both win this week, playing away games against the Rams and Dolphins respectively. Then the Colts get the 49ers at home and Texans at home, while the Saints get the Falcons at home and Panthers at home. That two game stretch look more difficult for the Saints but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams start 9-0 or 10-0. They both have just one or two more games that look dangerous and other than that it’s relatively easy sailing.

I would still like to add a few more sources to come up with the average rankings but I’m just not sure which ones I would use. If there are any suggestions let me know. Also, The formula I made for this will become more and more accurate as the season goes on, because as of right now the win percentages are being greatly influential over the final outcome due to the fact that each game makes up a greater portion of teams win percentage. The more games that are played, the more it will water down that impact and the rankings as a whole will become more accurate.

I will again be adding a few points that I feel are noteworthy below the rankings so be sure to check those out. Here are the rankings:

Rank LW Team W L T SOS PD/G Avg Rnk Score
1 3 New Orleans 5 0 0 41.57 19.80 1.75 969.1749
2 2 Indianapolis 5 0 0 43.01 13.20 1.63 905.1951
3 4 Minnesota 6 0 0 46.07 11.33 3.00 496.5322
4 5 Denver 6 0 0 48.35 11.17 4.13 377.0323
5 1 NY Giants 5 1 0 54.02 9.83 4.88 284.7208
6 8 Atlanta 4 1 0 50.57 9.20 6.81 179.3426
7 11 New England 4 2 0 50.00 12.00 6.69 164.4860
8 13 Pittsburgh 4 2 0 45.65 4.67 8.31 93.9696
9 6 Philadelphia 3 2 0 54.55 7.40 12.06 77.0596
10 7 Cincinnati 4 2 0 49.46 0.00 9.50 72.8884
11 10 Baltimore 3 3 0 55.43 6.50 11.13 68.5090
12 9 Chicago 3 2 0 52.22 4.00 11.88 65.9621
13 15 Green Bay 3 2 0 47.25 7.40 13.19 61.0533
14 14 Dallas 3 2 0 50.56 4.80 16.63 47.0778
15 18 Arizona 3 2 0 45.56 4.00 14.69 46.5294
16 16 San Francisco 3 2 0 46.07 2.80 17.38 37.8636
17 12 NY Jets 3 3 0 48.89 1.67 16.56 33.4543
18 22 Houston 3 3 0 45.05 1.00 17.69 28.0170
19 20 Miami 2 3 0 50.55 1.20 18.50 24.2640
20 17 San Diego 2 3 0 48.39 -2.40 16.44 21.9025
21 19 Seattle 2 4 0 44.32 1.50 20.19 16.4656
22 23 Jacksonville 3 3 0 40.66 -4.50 21.13 15.8791
23 24 Carolina 2 3 0 57.95 -8.00 22.31 13.5054
24 21 Washington 2 4 0 51.14 -2.83 27.44 11.2868
25 26 Buffalo 2 4 0 46.67 -6.00 24.06 9.6968
26 31 Oakland 2 4 0 51.09 -12.83 25.19 5.5217
27 29 Kansas City 1 5 0 54.35 -7.67 27.13 4.4526
28 27 Cleveland 1 5 0 54.84 -13.17 28.19 2.5400
29 25 Detroit 1 5 0 57.30 -14.17 27.00 2.4170
30 30 Tampa Bay 0 6 0 58.14 -13.17 31.13 2.0903
31 28 Tennessee 0 6 0 52.22 -19.00 30.31 0.4922
32 32 St. Louis 0 6 0 53.41 -19.17 31.13 0.4494

Here are some notes:

  • It’s becoming very clear who the nine worst teams in the league are, the tenth spot is a little more up in the air.
  • The Colts actually have a higher average ranking than the Saints and a better SOS, but due to the Saints ridiculous 19.8 point differential per game, the Colts stay in second.
  • The top five teams are basically a consensus top five.
  • There are quite a few teams that had extremely close scores.
  • The Rams nearly found their way out of that bottom spot, but I’m afraid that after this upcoming week with the Colts they might be stuck there until they win.
  • We’re finally getting to the point in the year where the win percentage isn’t dictating the rankings.
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3 Responses

  1. I’m throwing a party when the Rams win. You’re all invited.

    • Let me check my calendar. I’ll let you know if I’m free… in 2010.

    • Hey, we’ll beat the Titans.

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