2009 NFL Draft Grades

It has now been a full week since the 2009 NFL Draft ended, and I’ve already put up my first 2010 Mock Draft, which means it’s definitely about time I put up my opinion of how all the teams did. By waiting a full week, I ensure that my initial reactions are accurate and that I take into account all aspects that come into play. And speaking of taking into account all aspects, I found a very interesting site and article that I’d recommend checking out. They mathematically project the statistics for every single player in the upcoming season based on a complex set of algorithms. Those predictions will come in mid-June, but this article ranks the top 100 rookies based on how much of an impact they will make on the team they were drafted by.

I was going to write a pretty lengthy introduction explaining how I graded the teams and the math that I used to do it. The math is pretty similar to when I did this last year though. The main difference this time is that I’m doing the math all at once this year. For the 2008 draft, I put up four different posts grading how well the 32 different teams drafted. I had put up the AFC Draft Grades, the NFC Draft Grades, the consolidated NFL Draft Grades, and then a revised NFL Draft Grades. The score column is from me rating how much value a team got out of a pick or how much of a reach it was. I gave positive points for value, negative points for a reach. Then totalled up all the picks for each team and that was their score. I then took the average score per pick for each team. From there I adjusted the averages to make it so all teams had a positive number, then adjusted those numbers so that they would be on a scale of 100 with the average of all the teams being as close to 75 as I could make it. If you have any more questions about how I came up with these numbers feel free to ask about it in a comment.

Here are the grades:

Rnk Team Score # of Picks Avg Adj Avg Out of 100 Grade
1 Philadelphia 996 8 124.50 6.500 91.00 A-
2 San Francisco 664 7 94.86 6.143 86.00 B
3 Arizona 747 8 93.38 6.125 85.75 B
4 Cincinnati 913 11 83.00 6.000 84.00 B
5 NY Jets 249 3 83.00 6.000 84.00 B
6 NY Giants 664 9 73.78 5.889 82.44 B-
7 Seattle 498 7 71.14 5.857 82.00 B-
8 Minnesota 332 5 66.40 5.800 81.20 B-
9 Chicago 581 9 64.56 5.778 80.89 B-
10 Green Bay 498 8 62.25 5.750 80.50 B-
11 Jacksonville 498 9 55.33 5.667 79.33 C+
12 Baltimore 332 6 55.33 5.667 79.33 C+
13 Tennessee 498 11 45.27 5.545 77.64 C+
14 Atlanta 332 8 41.50 5.500 77.00 C+
15 Washington 249 6 41.50 5.500 77.00 C+
16 New Orleans 166 4 41.50 5.500 77.00 C+
17 St. Louis 249 7 35.57 5.429 76.00 C
18 Carolina 249 7 35.57 5.429 76.00 C
19 Miami 249 9 27.67 5.333 74.67 C
20 Detroit 249 10 24.90 5.300 74.20 C
21 Dallas 166 12 13.83 5.167 72.33 C-
22 Houston 83 8 10.38 5.125 71.75 C-
23 Indianapolis 0 8 0.00 5.000 70.00 C-
24 Pittsburgh 0 9 0.00 5.000 70.00 C-
25 New England -83 12 -6.92 4.917 68.83 D+
26 Cleveland -83 8 -10.38 4.875 68.25 D+
27 Tampa Bay -83 6 -13.83 4.833 67.67 D+
28 Denver -166 10 -16.60 4.800 67.20 D+
29 Buffalo -249 8 -31.13 4.625 64.75 D
30 San Diego -249 8 -31.13 4.625 64.75 D
31 Kansas City -332 8 -41.50 4.500 63.00 D-
32 Oakland -498 7 -71.14 4.143 58.00 F
16.5 Average 241.22 8 31.96 5.39 75.39 C

I also graded each division as a whole as well as the two conferences. I used the exact same method that I used to grade the individual teams. Here are the results from that:

Rnk Team Score # of Picks Avg Adj Avg Out of 100 Grade
4 AFC North 1162 34 34.18 5.41 75.76 C
5 AFC South 1079 36 29.97 5.36 75.06 C
7 AFC East 166 32 5.19 5.06 70.88 C-
8 AFC West -1245 33 -37.73 4.55 63.64 D
2 AFC Avg 290.50 33.75 7.9 5.1 71.33 C-
Rnk Team Score # of Picks Avg Adj Avg Out of 100 Grade
3 NFC North 1660 32 51.88 5.63 78.75 C+
6 NFC South 664 25 26.56 5.32 74.48 C
2 NFC East 2075 35 59.29 5.71 80.00 B-
1 NFC West 2158 29 74.41 5.90 82.55 B-
1 NFC Avg 1639.25 30.25 53.03 5.64 78.95 C+

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5 Responses

  1. Algorithms? I love it! Numbers anyone? Good post Weller. You lose me half the time but it all reads very impressive. One of these days, I will catch up.

  2. How do you grade what a reach is and what value is?

  3. I did it based on where scouting sources had the player ranked, compared to where the player was actually selected… ie: Oakland took Darrius Heyward-Bey at 7 when on average he was barely rated as a top-20 player… but San Francisco got Michael Crabtree at 10 when he was consistently ranked as one of the top 3 players… so Oakland reached and San Francisco got value.

  4. Seems this could get a little fishy towards the later rounds.

  5. Haha, I’m actually glad you mentioned that… I didn’t penalize anyone (as in I didn’t deem anything a reach) for their pick in round 6 or round 7 because like you said it starts to get “a little fishy” but if someone did get a player that should have been taken earlier, I did go ahead and give them value points.

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