Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks for the NFL Draft

I have found bits and pieces and summarized and longer versions of the exact same projection from multiple different sources on the internet, and when I say the exact same I mean that it’s clearly been copied and pasted, so I don’t actually know who to credit for the information I have found. To read the longest and most thorough version of it that I can find click here.

For those of you that don’t know, compensatory picks are the extra draft picks awarded to teams based on the players that the team had lost to free agency the previous year. Where at in the draft the compensatory pick will take place is determined by a formula taking into account how much the player’s salary is, how many games they played in, how many games they started in and postseason honors with his new team. There are 32 compensatory picks given out each year, the earliest that one can be is at the end of the third round (or the 97th overall pick) unless a team or teams had to forfeit any picks. For example, the patriots had to forfeit their first round pick last year because they are cheaters, thus the first compensatory pick was 96th overall. The last compensatory pick, which is also the last pick of the entire draft is 256th overall. Compensatory picks cannot be traded. The 2009 compensatory picks are expected to be announced on Monday, which I guess is now technically today.

Here are the projected compensatory picks for 2009, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and where it applied, I noted if the player had any postseason awards and if the pick could be in a different round than where I have it listed.

THIRD ROUND

New England (Asante Samuel, $9.3567 million per season, 15 GP/15 GS, Pro Bowl)

Pittsburgh (Alan Faneca, $7.8 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)

Cincinnati (Justin Smith, $7 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick

FOURTH ROUND

Chicago (Bernard Berrian, $6.9 million, 16/13) – possibly a third-round pick

N.Y. Giants (Gibril Wilson, $6.5008 million, 16/15) – possibly a third-round pick

San Diego (Michael Turner, $5.75 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) – possibly a third-round pick

San Diego (Drayton Florence, $5.9333 million, 15/8)

Tennessee (Antwan Odom, $5.9 million, 12/8)

Indianapolis (Jake Scott, $4.8 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth-round pick

FIFTH ROUND

San Francisco (Kwame Harris, $4.6667 million, 14/11)

New England (Donte Stallworth, $4.5393 million, 11/7)

Dallas (Jacques Reeves, $4 million, 16/16) – possibly a sixth-round pick

Tennessee (Travis LaBoy, $4.4 million, 13/12) – possibly a sixth-round pick

SIXTH ROUND

Tennessee (Randy Starks, $3.885 million, 16/4)

New England (Randall Gay, $3.3125 million, 14/13)

Dallas (Julius Jones, $2.9 million, 15/10)

Cincinnati (Landon Johnson, $2.733 million, 15/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick

San Francisco (Marques Douglas, $2.525 million, 16/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick

SEVENTH ROUND

Tennessee (Ben Hartsock, $2.25 million, 11/11)

Washington (Mark Brunell, $1.755 million, 2/0)

Seattle (Chuck Darby, $1.467 million, 15/15)

Seattle (Ellis Wyms, $1.4 million, 16/0)

Chicago (John Gilmore, $1.333 million, 16/10)

Seattle (Kevin Bentley, $1.3 million, 16/7)

Chicago (Brendon Ayanbadejo, $1.223 million, 16/0, Pro Bowl)

Cincinnati (Bryan Robinson, $1.2125 million, 16/15)

Seattle (D.J. Hackett, $1.2 million, 9/2)

Jacksonville (Terry Cousin, $1.115 million, 16/0)

Detroit (net-value comp pick, lost three for $10.721 million, 38/22; signed three for $7.134 million, 42/31)

Arizona (net-value comp pick, lost three for $9.45 million, 46/42; signed three for $6.9625 million, 40/27)

Detroit (non-compensatory pick)

Kansas City (non-compensatory pick)

As noted, the values of nine comp picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the comp pick for Smith is in the fourth round, if the comp picks for Berrian, Wilson and/or Turner are in the third round, if the comp pick for Scott is in the fifth round, if the comp picks for Reeves and LaBoy in the sixth round or if the comp picks for Johnson and/or Douglas are in the seventh round. (Actually, if Douglas’ value falls in the seventh round, the 49ers’ comp pick would be for Maurice Hicks and would fall between Chicago’s pick for John Gilmore and Seattle’s pick for Kevin Bentley.)

Of course, other projected picks could be off by one round (or more) if the NFL happened to change the formula or increase the cutoff points by significantly more or less than I projected.

Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 15 teams that I’m projecting will receive comp picks:

ARIZONA

Lost: Calvin Pace, Bryant Johnson, Keydrick Vincent

Signed: Travis LaBoy, Clark Haggans, Bryan Robinson

CHICAGO

Lost: Bernard Berrian, John Gilmore, Brendon Ayanbadejo

Signed: None

CINCINNATI

Lost: Justin Smith, Madieu Williams, Landon Johnson, Bryan Robinson

Signed: Antwan Odom

DALLAS

Lost: Jacques Reeves, Julius Jones

Signed: None

DETROIT

Lost: Damien Woody, Boss Bailey, T.J. Duckett

Signed: Brian Kelly, Michael Gaines, Chuck Darby

INDIANAPOLIS

Lost: Jake Scott

Signed: None

JACKSONVILLE

Lost: Bobby McCray, Ernest Wilford, Sammy Knight, Terry Cousin

Signed: Drayton Florence, Jerry Porter, Cleo Lemon

NEW YORK GIANTS

Lost: Gibril Wilson, Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor

Signed: Sammy Knight, Danny Clark

NEW ENGLAND

Lost: Asante Samuel, Donte Stallworth, Randall Gay

Signed: None

PITTSBURGH

Lost: Alan Faneca, Clark Haggans

Signed: Mewelde Moore

SAN DIEGO

Lost: Michael Turner, Drayton Florence

Signed: None

SAN FRANCISCO

Lost: Justin Smiley, Kwame Harris, Marques Douglas, Maurice Hicks

Signed: Justin Smith, Bryant Johnson

SEATTLE

Lost: Josh Brown, Niko Koutouvides, Chuck Darby, Ellis Wyms, Kevin Bentley, D.J. Hackett

Signed: Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett

TENNESSEE

Lost: Jacob Bell, Antwan Odom, Travis LaBoy, Randy Starks, Ben Hartsock, Chris Brown

Signed: Jake Scott

WASHINGTON

Lost: Mark Brunell

Signed: None

Anyone else who was lost or signed by one of those teams last offseason is not projected to qualify for the equation, for one reason or another. Remember, players have to meet certain criteria in order to qualify for the equation (see the eighth paragraph of these projections for a summary of the criteria), so a lot of players will not count in the equation. Most of the time, it’s either because the player had been released by his previous team and was not a true UFA, or because the player didn’t sign for enough money to qualify.

Under no circumstances will more than 32 picks be awarded, so if I have made numerous significant mistakes and there are more true comp picks than I have projected, one or more of the lowest-valued picks in my projection (starting with the non-compensatory picks and going backward) might not be awarded, if they’re not one of the 32 highest-valued comp picks. Only the 32 highest-valued comp picks are awarded.

The NFL typically awards the compensatory picks on the second day of the Annual Meeting, which would be March 23 this year. The meeting will be March 22-25 in Dana Point, California.

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3 Responses

  1. […] Posted on March 23, 2009 by colts18 The NFL just announced the placement of the 32 compensatory picks for the NFL Draft. Here they are, listed with the round, pick number within the round and then […]

  2. […] so hopefully this makes up for it. Now that we’re finished with the NFL Combine, and the compensatory picks have been assigned it makes it a lot easier to do more rounds, especially now that all but a few of […]

  3. […] so hopefully this makes up for it. Now that we’re finished with the NFL Combine, and the compensatory picks have been assigned it makes it a lot easier to do more rounds, especially now that all but a few of […]

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