2008 NFL Schedule Simulation (Part 4)

Okay, here we are through week 16, only one week left in the regular season. Again, if you’d like to see how things have progressed, check out Part 1 (weeks 1-4), Part 2 (weeks 5-8), and Part 3 (weeks 9-12). And I ask again, to please keep in mind that I didn’t actually pick a single game.

Well, as you can see, there are already some teams who have clinched their playoff spots. If there is ‘x’ before the teams name then they have clinched a playoff spot, if there is a ‘y’ then they have clinched their division, and if there is a ‘z’ then they have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. So the teams that are definitely in the playoffs at this point are the Jaguars, Colts, Chargers, Giants, and pats. Teams that still have a shot at getting into the playoffs are the Rams, Seahawks, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Falcons, and Eagles. So in Part 5 of this simulation I will have the results after week 17, and will show which teams will make it into the playoffs. I will also have the first three rounds of the playoffs, being the wild card round, the divisional round, and the conference championships. Then in the final part of the simulation, I will have it be solely for the Super Bowl.

So as you can see, the Cowboys stumbled these last few weeks, losing all four of their games, and to my disliking the Jags beat the Colts, handing the Colts their only two losses of the season. In the AFC the South, East and West divisions are basically already wrapped up, with the Jags, Chargers, and pats all winning their divisions and the Colts already clinching the first wild card spot. In the North, however, it’s a three way battle between the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns. Two of these teams will make the playoffs, one as the division winner, and one as the second wild card team. On the NFC side of things only one team has clinched a playoff births. The Packers and Vikings are tied at the top of the NFC North, either team could win the division, and both teams have a shot at a wild card spot if they don’t win it. In the NFC South the Buccaneers need a win to guarantee their divisions automatic bid, but could still get it even if they do lose. The Falcons on the other hand, absolutely must beat the Rams in week 17 to have any shot at making the playoffs. Speaking of the Rams, they are in second place in the NFC West, behind the Seahawks, who will clinch the division with a win against the Cardinals. If the Seahawks lose that game and the Rams win against the Falcons then the Rams could win the division, but even with a loss the Rams would have a shot at a wild card spot. The NFC East holds the lone team in the NFC to have already clinched a playoff spot, the New York Giants. The Eagles, who are second in the division, are hoping to grab a wild card spot.

For the next post, which will include the first three rounds of the playoffs, I will be seeding the teams just as the NFL does it with the real playoffs. Now, the way I’ve done this entire season so far has been based off of ESPN’s power rankings. For the playoffs, I’m thinking about re-structuring the teams chances of winning each game, because the power rankings obviously are listed 1-32, but since only 12 teams make the playoffs, I figured I would re-rank the teams 1-12. Here’s where I want your opinion, I have three ideas for how to do this:

1. I could keep the same power ranking but just re-assign the rankings 1-12, based on those preseason rankings.

2. I could re-assign the rankings 1-6 in each conference based on the teams seedings in the playoffs.

3. I could re-assign the rankings 1-12 based on the teams overall records at the end of the regular season. With this option I could still do 1-6 in each division based on overall record as well.

If you have an opinion on which option I should use, please vote in the comments, and I will tally it up before I start Part 5 and use the method that receives the most votes. In case of a tie, I will flip a coin. And if for option three you have a preference as to if I rank the teams 1-12 or 1-6 feel free to specify, and as always, feel free to ask any other questions or leave and other thought you may have in a comment as well.


Here are the standing through week 16:
North South East West
Ravens (10-5) z-Jaguars (14-1) y-pats (10-5) y-Chargers (10-5)
Steelers (10-5) x-Colts (13-2) Bills (7-8) Chiefs (7-8)
Browns (9-6) Texans (6-9) Jets (6-9) Broncos (7-8)
Bengals (2-13) Titans (6-9) Dolphins (4-11) Raiders (5-10)

North South East West
Packers (9-6) Buccaneers (9-6) y-Giants (10-5) Seahawks (10-5)
Vikings (9-6) Falcons (8-7) Eagles (9-6) Rams (9-6)
Lions (4-11) Saints (7-8) Cowboys (6-9) Cardinals (7-8)
Bears (4-11) Panthers (3-12) Redskins (6-9) 49ers (4-11)
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